This memorandum sets
forth some of my personal views, growing out of our
discussions concerning the possible relevance to
Attorney General�s Compact Report of the system of
nationwide barter (e.g. exchanges, reciprocal sales
etc.) being utilized by major integrated oil companies
throughout the U.S. in conjunction with their jointly
and severally controlled pipeline systems.
In the oil industry,
as in the case of agriculture, it appears that
preservation of viable competition ultimately depends
upon the maintenance of some form of constraint upon a
vast supply potential which normally overhangs current
demand, posing a perennial threat of ruinous price
depression to the market.
As compared with
agriculture, however, overproduction in the oil industry
has always presented a somewhat unique national problem
inasmuch as oil, unlike agricultural commodities, is an
unreplenishable natural resource that must be prudently
husbanded against wasteful physical dissipation as well
as improvident economic dumping if it is to continue to
meet manifold national economic and security needs of
the future.
In the United States,
the problem of controlling the potential oversupply of
oil has, since the chaotic experience of the 1930�s been
approached on two levels: one governmental, the other
private � the first having the sanction of law, the
second, however, posing serious questions of possible
infraction of the law (viz., the antitrust laws).
The first, legally
sanctioned type of supply control system, has been
instituted by both State and Federal Governments
seeking, within the general framework of an open market
system, to avoid only the most extreme and destructive
forms of economic dislocation. Basically such Government
programs have undertaken to strike some rough kind of
balance between current national demand and current
supply.
In practice, this
general balancing has been fostered by a combination of
State conservation laws that impose production
limitations, and federal laws which restrict foreign
imports and regulate interstate shipments of �hot oil�
illegally produced in excess of State production
ceilings, This complex of Government programs has been
quite successful in preventing historic extremes of
physical and economic waste of irreplaceable oil
resources, as well as the wasteful dissipation of
substantial private investment therein.
While Government
programs designed to maintain a national parity between
crude oil supply and demand have inevitably generated a
stabilizing flow [sic floor] under domestic crude
prices, such controls should not of themselves
necessarily militate toward rigid national or regional
prices. This would seem to follow from the fact that
such national supply/demand reconciliation is at best
but a gross adjustment contingent upon variant
pro-rationing policies of industrial oil producing
States.
Beyond that, however,
within the broad supply limits thus fixed by State and
Federal governmental programs, the actual disposition of
crude oil still remains determined exclusively by the
dynamic interplay of private actions of many different
enterprises whose particular geographic and other
economic circumstances, and responses thereto, may vary
considerably.
Thus, for example,
some integrated producer-refiners may own crude
resources mainly in States where conservation policies
from time to time compel the taking of crude in excess
of, or poorly situated with respect to such companies�
own refinery requirements These companies would
accordingly be confronted with the problem of disposing
of (or, to use the industry argot, of �finding a home�
for) such crude surpluses. Conversely, other
producer-refiners� crude whose producing reserves [are]
in States having restrictive production policies, may be
faced with making up refiner supply deficits from
outside sources.
In short, it seems
fairly evident that even within a system of gross,
nationally balanced crude supply and demand, given an
otherwise unrestricted free and open market, one might
still anticipate dynamic price variation to reflect
dynamically shifting surplus and deficit positions of
particular enterprises engaged therein.
In the face of this,
it is to be observed that the prior Attorney General�s
Interstate Oil Compact reports have rather consistently
called attention to the long-run rigidity of United
States crude prices, but have yet to penetrate deeply
into what may ultimately prove the root cause of this
market condition.
It is precisely here
that the above-suggested second type of supply control
mechanism of dubious legality becomes relevant. For
within the gross supply/demand equilibrium fostered by
State and Federal Government programs, there seems to
have grown up over the course of many years a phantom,
private mechanism for supply/demand reconciliation which
apparently lies completely outside of any State or
Federal Government program presently in effect.
This system appears to
be the product of widespread private commercial
arrangements which, in the aggregate, effect a
cooperative, non-price, balancing as between ostensibly
competing enterprises, of those recurring surpluses and
deficits which are either the result of the uneven
impact of State and Federal control programs upon
individual enterprise, or else natural concomitants of
normal operation.
To put it another way,
while State and Federal programs contemplated only a
rather �coarse tuning� of national supply/demand
imbalance as a stable base for wholesome private price
competition in an open market, the dominant integrated
industry factors apparently carried this process one
step further, to development of an even �finer tuning�
of their own private supply/demand imbalances internally
among themselves.
This approach
presumably evolved with realization that notwithstanding
the beneficent [sic] over-all stabilizing effects of
Government conservation and import controls, basic crude
prices (and, hence, ultimate profits) would still remain
highly uncertain so long as naturally recurring company
surpluses and deficits were left to the blind caprice of
genuine free market.
That the industry�s
leading companies, after long period of experiment, may
have largely succeeded in liberating their own basic
crude supply from the vestigial tyranny of free market,
can perhaps be surmised from the fact that
notwithstanding the huge volumes that daily change hands
between the majors throughout the United States at
points well beyond the oil fields and refineries,
indications are that very little of this is ever traded
among them on a price basis.
Furthermore, it
appears that only an insignificant trickle of crude
surplus ever finds its way into local �spot� markets,
and there only a handful of transactions ever determine
spot prices. As a consequence, spot prices (which
generally influence posted prices and long-term
open-price contracts) have remained relatively frozen,
providing the ultimate bulwark of stability to crude
prices and profits in the oil industry.
(A combination of two
factors explains why crude price has become the keystone
of this industry�s profit structure: (1) the basic
stabilization and under girding of crude prices fostered
by State and Federal Government supply control, and (2)
the substantial financial benefits accruing exclusively
at the crude production level from liberal tax credits
for depletion, depreciation, and foreign crude tax
payments.)
The mechanism by which
the industry has achieved its finely tuned private
equilibrium between supply and demand appears to embrace
an elaborate and widespread network of barter
transactions which ultimately and substantially involve
major integrated oil companies (i.e. after tracing
intermediate transfers to and from others).
Although the genesis
of this pervasive barter system remains somewhat
obscure, preliminary indications are that the economic
implications of barter first dawned upon the leaders of
the oil industry during the course of their
participation in national war emergency programs dating
back to World War I.
Thereafter, the
practice appears to have received further Federal
Government encouragement under NRA pooling programs
(subsequently held illegal in the Socony Vacuum case,
310 U.S. 150), and again under World War II, Korean, and
Middle East emergency programs.
In mobilizing the oil
industry for operation as a single cooperating unit,
rather than as separate competitive elements, these
national emergency programs inevitably recognized
inter-company barter as a most effectual logistical tool
for marshalling vast petroleum supplies at critical
geographical points of demand, while conserving limited
transportation and storage capacity and avoiding
needless facility duplication.
While such national
emergencies thus provided their own obvious rationale
for unitary operation of the oil industry it is equally
clear that these premises ceased to have any validity in
a free market setting once the Nation had returned to
normal conditions. Unfortunately, however, the barter
policies and practices generated and developed during
this long succession of national emergencies remained so
deeply and indelibly ingrained upon this industry as to
have by now become endemic and practically
institutionalized for lack of challenge.
The exclusive and
inherently discriminatory aspect of the system of barter
inevitably arises from the fact that the basic unit of
exchange hereunder is the barrel of oil (crude or
petroleum products) rather than a universally obtainable
and freely convertible monetary unit, viz. the dollar,
which is acceptable as the medium of exchange in
virtually every other area of domestic commercial
intercourse.
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