Spending Outlook Not Exciting
reason to celebrate over the latest forecast on ad spending by
Robert Coen, senior vice president and dad_spending_outlook_not_exciting.htmirector of forecasting for
Universal McCann. His finding was that the U.S. outlay, fueled in
part by the election and the Summer Olympics, will grow by 3.7% next
year to $294 billion.
That beats the
0.7% growth expected in 2007. But it�s lower than the 4.6% worldwide
total projected for 2008. And it reflects a continuing downtown in
�the relative importance of advertising,� Coen maintained.
fallen as a share of gross domestic product from 2.52% in 2000 to
2.05% this year; nationwide ad spending should total $283.8 billion
in 2007, he said.
The 2007 growth
rate, reduced by several percentage points from an earlier
projection, has been caused largely by economic worries. As Coen
wrote in his analysis, �U.S. advertising growth has been performing
poorly, as marketers trusted their fears more than their hopes.�
�the Internet and growing digital alternatives siphoned off funds
from many traditional advertising practices,� Coen noted. But online
growth also seems to be cooling. He projected that internet spending
will increase by 16.5% next year to $12.7 billion; this year it grew
by 20% to $10.9 billion.
spending will hit $63 million next year, a 4.5% increase over 2007.
This year, mail increased by 4% to $60 billion, Coen reported.
forecast holds up, the big traditional media winner next year will
be spot TV, which is expected to grow by 10% to $17.8 billion. But
he warned that the anticipated bump in spending next year will not
continue in 2009.
the totals down is the increased focus on return on investment. �The
desire for growing corporate profits has intensified and marketers
have fiercely opposed above-average media price increases,� Coen
international growth is being fueled by spending in many emerging
markets. Coen predicted it will rise by 5.3% next year to $359.5
billion. He presented his findings at the UBS Global Media
conference in New York on Monday, December 3.